NBA Draft Watch: Breakout Upperclassmen
Each year when the NBA draft comes around, there seems to be an aversion to taking upperclassman with a top selection. More specifically, college seniors often find themselves getting drafted in the second-round if at all. With March Madness just two days away, let’s take a look at the upperclassmen that have provided excellent leadership for their teams and are looking to increase their draft stock.
Kalek House – PG (Arizona)
HT/WT: 6'4"/190
NBA Comparison: Jimmer Fredette
Draft Projection: Late First Round
Strengths: A hired gun … An absolutely relentless scorer … Wide array of ways to put the ball in the basket … Great size and strength for a point guard … Strong finisher around the rim … Uncanny shooting ability … Volume shooter that maintains efficiency; averaged 3.3 three-pointers made per game in his senior season on 39.6% … Gets an outstanding amount of elevation on his jump shot … Won’t dazzle with high-flying dunks, but uses the athleticism he has very well … Tough to stop in transition … Can pull-up for a quick jump shot from anywhere on the court … Unlimited range … Supreme confidence in his shooting ability, won’t hesitate to fire from as far as 30 feet away from the basket … Able to make shots even when appearing well off-balance … Great free-throw shooter (83.3%) … Underrated quickness … Frequently throws off defenders with well-timed hesitations moves off the dribble … Can create a lot of space for himself, with or without the ball … Doesn’t have to dominate the ball to be effective … Crafty mid-range game … Comes off screens extremely well … Automatic catch-and-shoot ability … Talented passer that has the ability to create open shots for his teammates … Thrives in high-pressure situations … Very unselfish … Very high basketball IQ … Tough, physical player that doesn’t shy away from contact … Gym rat, always focused on improving his game … Smart, well-spoken kid that always seems to impress in his interviews …
Weaknesses: A very poor defender at Arizona … His team couldn’t afford for him to get in foul trouble which may account for his lackluster defensive effort … Struggles to close out on shooters … As the primary offensive option on his team, he hasn’t proven he can be a pass-first point guard … Assist-to-turnover ratio is poor (4.3 assists to 3.5 turnovers), but understandable due to his role on the team … Prone to getting blocked on his drives to the rim … Athleticism is certainly below average for an NBA point guard, which may hinder his ability to get his shot off at the next level …
Derrick Norman – SG (Ohio State)
HT/WT: 6'5"/201
NBA Comparison: Anthony Edwards
Draft Projection: Lottery
Strengths: A rangy, 6’5 guard prospect with a truly formidable combination of size, strength and quick twitch athleticism on the perimeter … Somewhat of a physical freak, possessing an imposing frame that is mature well beyond its years and that he knows how to use to his advantage … A powerful and explosive leaper, particularly off of 2 feet, and is pretty light on his feet for his size, making him an absolute terror for defenses when he’s slashing to the rim in the half court or running the floor in transition … Is at his best when he’s going downhill, often steamrolling the wings and smaller guards that defended him on his way to the rim throughout his college career … Is a big-time threat to finish above the rim and through contact; has posterized his fair share of defenders and also drawn fouls at a pretty good clip in college as well (over 8 FTA a game, made a pretty solid 79%) … Has outstanding body control; seems to hang and glide in the air and rarely ever is off balance or knocked off his path due to his strong build and broad shoulders … Will be able to get his shots off due to the high and quick nature of his mechanics, as well as the nice elevation he rises up into his jumper with … Can create and score off the dribble as well, at times flashing the ability to pull off advanced shot creation moves that lead to impressive “good defense, better offense” shots … Has a great 1st step and also uses step back and jab step moves to create space against tight defense to get his shots when isolated … Can be a very tough player for defenders to contain 1 on 1 … Led the Big Ten in scoring, really showed he could get hot at times and light up the scoreboard in a hurry with his ability to hit perimeter shots as well as get to the rim and convert … Solid post up scorer when against smaller guards … Occasionally shows good timing moving without the ball as a cutter to the rim, which can lead to easy scores at the rim … Capable of blocking the occasional shot or creating a turnover by gambling in the passing lane that leads to transition opportunities … Has the tools to be a factor on the defensive glass …
Weaknesses: Norman has to improve his assertiveness on both ends of the court to reach his potential, he too often bails out defenders and doesn’t utilize his physical gifts to the best of his ability on a game to game basis at this stage … There were games when it seemed like he could’ve taken over and made his presence felt but instead settled for low percentage jumpers all game or showed a total disregard of playing defense … Shot selection is a work in progress … Needs to work on picking his spots offensively, if you force him off the 3 point line he can get out of control off the bounce because he lacks a real mid-range game at the moment … Should look to develop a floater and/or pull-up J from around that 12 to 15 ft area to keep defenders honest … Has average defensive awareness; frequently got caught sleep at the wheel not seeing his man and the ball when matched up in the halfcourt, which allowed backdoor slips to the rim for easy layups or offensive rebounds by not locating someone to box out when the shot goes up … His team had a better defensive rating without him on the court than with, which is discouraging considering the talent jump he’s about to make in terms of the players he’ll be guarding … Given the fact that he has all the tools to be a great defender if he just works on his effort and gets a better understanding of weakside defense, there is hope for him to improve on that end …. Mediocre passer (2.8 : 2.7 A:TO with a 130 usage rate) for a player who was projected as a combo guard in HS … Sometimes Norman can struggle to contribute when his shots aren’t falling … Had poor efficiency (40% FG and 29% 3FG on 7 attempts a game), partly due to him taking bad shots but also due to usage and the type of extra attention he saw as a Sr …
Kaden House – SG (Arizona)
HT/WT: 6'5"/200
NBA Comparison: Buddy Hield
Draft Projection: Lottery
Strengths: Very rarely do players improve dramatically between their junior, and senior years of college, but Arizona senior, Kaden House has taken his game to the next level during his 4th collegiate season … Always a strong outside shooter, House has improved his 3 point percentage to a lofty .523% on 7.9 attempts per game … He showcases NBA range, and even beyond, rendering him a player that needs to be guarded out to 26 feet away from the hoop … This season, he’s scorching the nets to the tune of 53% from the field, 53% from deep, and 85% from the stripe, and he reportedly shots between 300-500 jumpers a session outside of Arizona’s practices, which is an attribute to his work ethic and desire to improve … Early in his career, Kaden showed great promise off the dribble, and as a slasher, but during his sophomore and junior seasons, he became a bit predictable and took over half his shots from beyond the arc … He’s clearly addressed this, and both improved his handle, and his at the rim conversion rate this season … He made just 55% of his shots at the rim last season (according to hoop-math.com) and has risen that to 63.3% this season … He also gets to the free throw line 1.7 more times per game … Kaden’s handle is noticeably better, and this has been in aid in both creating for himself, and for others … He’s also shown the ability to dribble out of trouble, change speeds, and get past defenders … He’s averaging a career high in assists (2.5) as well … His 6’8.5’’ wingspan is a nice metric for a player who stands 6’4.5’’ in shoes, and his conditioning is clearly at an elite level, which was noticed at in the knock-down, drag out double overtime game vs UCLA, in which House hung 36 points, pulled down 8 rebounds, and dished out 7 assists … From a defensive standpoint, he is very solid considering the offensive load he carries for his team … He’s willing, has quick hands, and has amassed 44 steals and 12 blocks this season … Looking towards the NBA, he may not project as an elite defender, but he’s more than physically capable … He’s quietly averaging a career high in rebounds (5.8) and has actually logged 8 or more rebounds 5 times this season.
Weaknesses: Kaden’s main knock will be his height for an NBA shooting guard, and although he’s improved his handle significantly in order to become more of a combo guard, he’s still not more of an undersized 2 … Kaden has clearly worked to improve his game off the dribble, and now takes less than 50% of his shots from deep, in favor of driving to the hoop to keep defenders guessing … In reality, this is a player who has clearly worked very hard at not just what he does well, but his flaws, and as a result, he’s become a very complete player, that’s hard to nitpick outside of some physical differences between the size of NCAA players and those in the NBA …
Kedrick Thomas – SG (Gonzaga)
HT/WT: 6'4"/199
NBA Comparison: Bradley Beal
Draft Projection: Lottery
Strengths: Talented shooting guard with a prototypical skill-set for the position … Strong build … Has solid size, standing about 6’4" in shoes with a 6’7" wingspan … A good overall athlete with good quickness and speed for his position … Isn’t terribly explosive, but finishes strong around the rim regardless … A gifted jump-shooter … Effortless mechanics with a buttery release and a consistent follow-through … Doesn’t need a lot of time to get squared-up to the hoop … Dangerous in spot-up situations … Has to be constantly monitored by the defense, especially when he camps in the corner … NBA range … Won’t hesitate firing out to about 25 feet … Good quickness and shows a nice first step, so his driving ability can and should improve … Willing to take the ball inside when the defense overplays him on the perimeter … Gets to the free-throw line at an adequate rate … Understands how to run the court in transition opportunities; with the ball or without … Should be able to defend his position at the next level … Displays strong defensive instincts; moving his feet well and getting a lot of deflections … Great overall anticipation while defending passing lanes … Blocked nearly a shot per game in his senior season … Rebounds much bigger than his size (pulled down 5.5 per game) … Very high basketball IQ … Extremely unselfish … Doesn’t have to clog the offense or dominate the basketball to be an effective scorer …
Weaknesses: May be an inch or two shorter than most starting shooting guards in the NBA, and he doesn’t have the kind of explosive leaping ability that would compensate … Is prone to getting his shot blocked when he takes the ball inside … Struggles in traffic. Size appears to be an issue for him when in around the basket … Not a polished ball-handler, has yet to show a consistent ability to get to the rim off the dribble from the perimeter … Won’t often look to create for himself or others off the dribble … Had an inconsistent year behind the arc, shooting only 34% from outside, struggled especially early in the year …
Nick Lloyd –PG (Xavier)
HT/WT: 6'2"/189
NBA Comparison: Cory Joseph
Draft Projection: Late First Round
Strengths: Young lead guard with decent upside … Well-rounded athlete … Good speed with the ball in his hands … Solid strength with the frame to potentially add a little more muscle … Aggressive in transition, displaying good instincts and finishing ability … Great perimeter shooting ability … A very natural spot-up shooter from mid to long range … Shot a very respectable 41.3% from behind the arc this season … Adequate passing ability and he doesn’t turn the ball over a lot (averaged over 2 assists per turnover) … Keeps his teammates involved … Not a selfish player by any stretch … A very solid defender with strong potential. Very solid person, impressive character …
Weaknesses: Is currently more of a shooter than a scorer … Very raw as a floor general and some question if he’s more of a combo than true PG … Shared ball-handling responsibilities at Xavier, and never had the chance to really show off his creativity with the ball … Not used to creating offense for himself off the dribble … Doesn’t look comfortable around the rim … Great shooting numbers from outside, but shot only 42.8% from inside the arc which points to his mediocre slashing/cutting skills … Playmaking ability has potential, but he has a lot to learn before he can be considered a quality full-time point guard …
