Caesar's Arguably Blasphemous Sports Debate Emporium
Posted: 12 Dec 2022, 06:56
Bringing this back a year plus later to say that we, as a country (the United States), need to fucking retire the notion that the US cannot have an elite men's international soccer team after this World Cup. Let's break down the numbers of why this notion is just ignorant.
First, let's look at the populations of the team's in the semi-finals this week.
France: ~68 million
Argentina: ~47 million
Morocco: ~37 million (NOTE: A large majority, if not all, of Morocco's players weren't born in Morocco)
Croatia: ~3.9 million
But this is the men's World Cup so let's subset that out -- specifically males who are 18 and under because we're talking about developing a generation of athletes.
France: ~9 million males under 18
Argentina: ~7 million males under 18
Morocco: ~7 million males under 18 (keeping in mind that their squad is heavily foreign-born)
Croatia: >~550,000 males under 18
Now, we have to break this down further for the myriad of reasons that these people don't end up playing soccer. Let's say that 20% of them do (being generous because I imagine this number is actually lower).
France: ~1.8 million
Argentina: ~1.4 million
Morocco: ~1.4 million
Croatia: ~110,000
Now, you can see we've whittled this down a lot and we're not even yet to "number of players who will actually become good enough to play for their national team." Yet, from a population of 3.9 million, with a little more than half a million males, Croatia has found 26 players to get them to the World Cup semis twice.
So, this brings us to the United States.
Population: ~333 million
Population of males under 18: ~44 million
I know what you're going to say sOcCeR iSn'T tHe MoSt PoPuLaR sPoRt iN tHe Us. Sure it isn't. We're working with a subset of kids that is larger than almost 3 of 4 of these semifinalists total populations. Soccer is the most played youth sport in the US, though. Still, I've concocted some totally unscientific weights to give to the most prevalent US sports to apply to our next subset.
Let's say half of these kids play sports. So, 22 million.
We're going to say 30% (as the US's most popular sport but this isn't accurate to actual youth sports numbers) of them play football: That's 6 million.
25% of them are playing basketball (again not accurate to actual youth sports numbers): 5.5 million
20% for soccer (because it is the most played youth sport): 4.4 million
12.5% for baseball: 2.75 million
Final 12.5% for every other sport (ain't no kids playing hockey like talking about. Y'all can kiss my ass if you think otherwise. This ain't Mighty Ducks. No one playing pickup hockey games except in Minnesota.): 2.75 million
Now, that 4.4 million (which should be higher but we're giving the popularity folks the benefit of the doubt) puts the number of kids playing soccer in line with France, Argentina, Morocco and Croatia... for their total male populations under 18 and is almost TEN TIMES higher than Croatia's.
You need three things to be develop a sporting culture: Population (US: ), Infrastructure (US: ), Wealth (US: ).
Let's say that 1% of those 4.4 million kids play professional soccer in some shape or form somewhere in the world. That's 44,000 professionals. Remember, Croatia in this scenario has 110,000 total children playing soccer.
A World Cup squad is 26 players. Please explain to me how you cannot cultivate, from 4.4 million male children 1% of whom will become professional soccer players, a squad of 26 elite soccer players. Fuck, you don't even need 26 elite ones. You need like 6 elite guys, 7 really good guys, a few alright dudes and just some roster filler.
And we haven't even gotten into the fact that the false belief that the best athletes are playing football and basketball in the United States. Those motherfuckers are out on someone's track or in someone's pool. Fred Kerley is more athletic than everyone in the NBA and NFL. Fight me.
In conclusion, the reasons the United States does not have an elite men's international soccer team has nothing to do with the popularity of the sport or the fact that all of the best athletes don't play soccer because there are more than enough kids who can be developed into elite athletes and therefore soccer players.
First, let's look at the populations of the team's in the semi-finals this week.
France: ~68 million
Argentina: ~47 million
Morocco: ~37 million (NOTE: A large majority, if not all, of Morocco's players weren't born in Morocco)
Croatia: ~3.9 million
But this is the men's World Cup so let's subset that out -- specifically males who are 18 and under because we're talking about developing a generation of athletes.
France: ~9 million males under 18
Argentina: ~7 million males under 18
Morocco: ~7 million males under 18 (keeping in mind that their squad is heavily foreign-born)
Croatia: >~550,000 males under 18
Now, we have to break this down further for the myriad of reasons that these people don't end up playing soccer. Let's say that 20% of them do (being generous because I imagine this number is actually lower).
France: ~1.8 million
Argentina: ~1.4 million
Morocco: ~1.4 million
Croatia: ~110,000
Now, you can see we've whittled this down a lot and we're not even yet to "number of players who will actually become good enough to play for their national team." Yet, from a population of 3.9 million, with a little more than half a million males, Croatia has found 26 players to get them to the World Cup semis twice.
So, this brings us to the United States.
Population: ~333 million
Population of males under 18: ~44 million
I know what you're going to say sOcCeR iSn'T tHe MoSt PoPuLaR sPoRt iN tHe Us. Sure it isn't. We're working with a subset of kids that is larger than almost 3 of 4 of these semifinalists total populations. Soccer is the most played youth sport in the US, though. Still, I've concocted some totally unscientific weights to give to the most prevalent US sports to apply to our next subset.
Let's say half of these kids play sports. So, 22 million.
We're going to say 30% (as the US's most popular sport but this isn't accurate to actual youth sports numbers) of them play football: That's 6 million.
25% of them are playing basketball (again not accurate to actual youth sports numbers): 5.5 million
20% for soccer (because it is the most played youth sport): 4.4 million
12.5% for baseball: 2.75 million
Final 12.5% for every other sport (ain't no kids playing hockey like talking about. Y'all can kiss my ass if you think otherwise. This ain't Mighty Ducks. No one playing pickup hockey games except in Minnesota.): 2.75 million
Now, that 4.4 million (which should be higher but we're giving the popularity folks the benefit of the doubt) puts the number of kids playing soccer in line with France, Argentina, Morocco and Croatia... for their total male populations under 18 and is almost TEN TIMES higher than Croatia's.
You need three things to be develop a sporting culture: Population (US: ), Infrastructure (US: ), Wealth (US: ).
Let's say that 1% of those 4.4 million kids play professional soccer in some shape or form somewhere in the world. That's 44,000 professionals. Remember, Croatia in this scenario has 110,000 total children playing soccer.
A World Cup squad is 26 players. Please explain to me how you cannot cultivate, from 4.4 million male children 1% of whom will become professional soccer players, a squad of 26 elite soccer players. Fuck, you don't even need 26 elite ones. You need like 6 elite guys, 7 really good guys, a few alright dudes and just some roster filler.
And we haven't even gotten into the fact that the false belief that the best athletes are playing football and basketball in the United States. Those motherfuckers are out on someone's track or in someone's pool. Fred Kerley is more athletic than everyone in the NBA and NFL. Fight me.
In conclusion, the reasons the United States does not have an elite men's international soccer team has nothing to do with the popularity of the sport or the fact that all of the best athletes don't play soccer because there are more than enough kids who can be developed into elite athletes and therefore soccer players.